Saturday, September 24, 2005

Job losses in the US

Worried about "exported" jobs? Don't be.

Vox Day analyzes the exportation of US jobs to China and India, and finds that it's not all that worrysome.
From Vox Popoli:
Productivity is notoriously difficult to calculate, but if we use the simplest possible national estimate, GDP/civilian worker, it's clear that even today, the American worker annually produces about $86,000 ($11.75 trillion/136.49 million) in value.* By comparison, if we assume that a similar percentage of the Chinese population is employed in the labor force - if anyone has an actual statistic, let me know and we'll plug it in - that indicates the average Chinese worker produces $212.77 annually, (1.21 trillion/568.7 million). This would put the number of American footwear manufacturing jobs lost at 49,500 if Chinese productivity had been at its current levels since 1970... which it hasn't, having quadrupled since 1978. So, the actual number of American jobs lost to these 20 million Chinese workers is probably somewhere around 20k to 25k.

Now keep in mind that the entire Indian IT market is smaller than this single Chinese footwear market, while the same productivity math applies. The American labor force is bleeding and this certainly may portend trouble for the future, but it's still more akin to a nasty cut on the hand, not a hemmorhage, and fails to account for the greater part of the historical decline in wages. These job losses are certainly not nothing, but their cumulative effect is still a relatively small one when compared to 21 million immigrants and 34 million women entering what was a workforce of 78 million in 30 years.

If you haven't done so, go read Vox's old blog posts, back for about three or four months. He forays into econimic theory, but skim the posts related to women voting and women working. Well proven points on the effect to society of both..., it pisses women and liberals off.